by Fox Doucette
There’s only one major fight this week in the sportsbooks online, as Danny Green (33-5, 28 KOs) makes his first trip into the ring in three years to take on Roberto Bolonti (36-3, 25 KOs) in a cruiserweight contest, signaling a move up from light heavyweight for the Argentine underdog as he takes on a man who is 0-1 in recognized world title fights (shut up about the IBO until it’s taken seriously by Canastota.)
Looking at the odds (please note that The Gambler’s Edge gets all its odds aggregated via OddsShark), it looks like your columnist gets to devote this debut effort to the concept of arbitrage. What a great place to start. For those interested, platforms like UFABET พนันบอลออนไลน์ offer avenues to explore such betting strategies.
See, two of the major books have Bolonti as a +800 underdog. 5-Dimes has Green as a -750 favorite. Drop 775 on Green at 5-Dimes, 100 on Bolonti at Bovada, and next thing you know, boom! No matter who wins you just got richer. Not by much if Green wins (that $775 bet will throw off $103.33, minus the $100 you dropped on Bolonti to hedge means you won three bucks), more if Bolonti wins (the $100 throws you back $800, you cover the $775 with it and pocket $25), and any bet between $750 and $800 will throw some variation on a guaranteed profit (a max of $50 vs. break-even if you bet $750 on Green and Bolonti wins, a minimum of $6.67 vs. break-even if you bet $800 on Green and Green wins—anything outside those bounds carries a risk of loss.)
You’ll notice that $50 is seven and a half times $6.67. That’s not a coincidence, Einstein. The “arb spread” will always follow that mathematical pattern whenever you have a binary event (a boxing match, in which one fighter wins or the other one does, assuming it pays as a push in case of a draw. If the draw is counted as a loss for all sides, that complicates matters—hedge with a few bucks on the draw outcome if you’re that worried about it, but this fight doesn’t offer that prop bet.)
Now, if there weren’t an arbitrage opportunity here? Bolonti is a beautiful live underdog here. Green hasn’t fought in three years. Yes, he’s the house fighter. Yes, he’s getting what his handlers believe is a showcase fight, and yes, the judges are going to be as biased as Glenn Trowbridge at a Manny Pacquiao fight, but none of that will matter if the shopworn Green is making an ill-advised attempt to get back into action. Green got ritually slaughtered by Krysztof Wlodarczyk and Antonio Tarver in 2011. His biggest win was against the rotted corpse of Roy Jones Jr.’s career in 2009. Two wins against nobodies in 2012, rather than vault him back to the conversation at the top, convinced him not to fight again.
Are you pondering what I’m pondering, Pinky? This is an upset waiting to happen from a limited-but-live underdog. +800 is a steal, because you only have to win that bet a time in nine for it to pay off, and as +800 dogs go, Bolonti, limited as he is, has the punching power to bother Green and convince him to go back Down Under, cash his paycheck for this fight, and think better of another attempt.
So, for the inaugural Gambler’s Edge Pick of the Week:
Roberto Feliciano Bolonti +800 Danny Green. ($100)
Danny Green -750 Roberto Feliciano Bolonti. ($775)
(yes, we’re going to keep track. I’m not Jim Feist, and if I suck at this, then the Bill Simmons Football Bettors’ Rule applies—read the “expert pick”, bet the other way, thank me later.)
We’ll see you next week with more talk about sports gambling. As always, this is for entertainment purposes only, please follow all laws applicable to your jurisdiction, and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem that is negatively impairing your work, home, school, or social life, please seek out resources in your area for problem gambling, don’t try this at home, that oughtta placate the lawyers.
Happy betting!
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