Saul Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: A Preview To A Mugging

Mexican superstar and former fully-unified super middleweight world champion, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (61-2-2, 39 KOs) returns to the ring this Saturday, September 14, headlining a PBC Pay-Per-View event on Prime Video from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT). He’ll be taking on the unbeaten Edgar Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs) in a 12-round contest that has widely been panned as a true main stage mismatch.

In the co-main event, Erislandy Lara defends his WBA middleweight title against former junior welterweight and welterweight champ Danny Garcia. Also on the pay-per-view undercard, former world super middleweight champ Caleb Plant takes on one-time top prospect Trevor McCumby and former junior welterweight titlist Rolando “Rolly” Romero meets Manuel Jaimes.

The Story

In the post-Floyd Mayweather era, there’s been no bigger boxing star than Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. With fame, fortune, and first-ballot Hall of Fame entry already established, everything the 34-year-old Guadalajara native does from this point forward is about adding to his sizable legacy. Some have accused the pound-for-pound great, however, of coasting in this most recent stretch of his career, after a decisive loss to Dmitry Bivol in a bid for the WBA light heavyweight title in 2022.

A four-division world champ heading into his twenty-sixth world title bout, Alvarez is still focused on affirming his presence in the pantheon of legendary Mexican fighters. Recent decision victories over Jermell Charlo, John Ryder, and Gennadiy Golovkin have been wholly anticlimactic. His most recent clash with fellow Mexican Jaime Munguia, on the other hand, was a success with fans and a sign that, with the right opponent in front of him and the right fire lit underneath him, he can still deliver an exciting, compelling performance.

Edgar Berlanga got a burst of attention very early in his professional career, scoring 16 consecutive first-round knockouts against club-level opposition. But since stepping up his level of opponent in 2021, the Brooklynite has only scored one knockout in his last six fights (in his most recent bout against Padraig McCrory). He has also looked alarmingly pedestrian against journeyman-level opposition– to the point of splitting with promoter Top Rank over their desire pull him back to mid-card status while he works on fine-tuning his skill set.

The 27-year-old is now fighting under Eddie Hearn’s Matchroom Boxing banner, fast-tracked into this title shot against Canelo Alvarez, but touting his ring IQ. He swears that he has upped his skill level since he was seen floundering against third-tier opposition and vows to showcase his new self in this biggest fight of his 8-year pro career.

Upon serious review, though, Berlanga’s sole qualification for a Canelo B-side slot seems to be his status as a fighter of Puerto Rican descent who can be wedged into a Mexico vs. Puerto Rico promotional storyline.

The Stakes

At stake are Saul Alvarez’s three super middleweight belts (WBA/WBA/WBO), along with his status as the unofficial “face of boxing.”

The Matchup

Once a bit of a come-forward plodder with a fairly single-minded fight plan, Canelo Alvarez has worked hard over the years to add craft and guile to his game, becoming a well-rounded, elite-level boxer-puncher.

The results of this hard labor can be seen in his refined skill set and a near-perfect mesh of offense and defense. His ability to parry punches with his gloves and utilize head movement to avoid shots works hand-in-hand with a controlled forward march and sharp, thudding two-fisted offensive repertoire.

Equally effective to the head and body, Alvarez’s controlled aggression, alongside his tight defense, makes him a nightmare opponent, even firmly in his post-prime, who discourages opposition and gradually breaks them down, mentally and physically.

Berlanga has occasionally shown a good, crisp jab. He’s shown flashes of one-punch power and an ability to dictate distance in the ring. The problem is that he’s only shown glimpses of being good. Most of the time, he’s demonstrated the inconsistency and technical/tactical sloppiness of a young fighter not yet ready for top notch competition.

He struggles with balance and footwork. His lack of follow-through technique makes him extremely vulnerable to counters. He lacks creativity and the ability to improvise beyond his usually crude game plan. He’s been touched– and buzzed– by much lesser-skilled fighters than Canelo, on many occasions. These lapses in technique and judgment make him highly vulnerable, even against modest-level opposition.

The Words

Saul Alvarez:

“I like them to be confident and do a lot of talking. I like breaking their face when they play like that. I’m eagerly awaiting that day. It’ll be the beatdown of his life. [Berlanga has] No chance. The experience I have, the intelligence, my boxing ability, I’ve already won, September 14th.”

Edgar Berlanga:

“I’m fighting a legend, and I’m going to become a legend. It’s my time to shine. I’m destined for this, to take over the sport and become the face by defeating him and retiring him on the night. He already made his mark in the sport. People are tired of him and want a new face.”

The Breakdown

Edgar Berlanga is NOT going to win this fight.

If the under-skilled, inexperienced New Yorker finds a way to best Canelo Alvarez (other than via wild, lucky shot at just the right time and place), the entire boxing intelligentsia should just retire.

Berlanga’s only realistic goal in this fight will center around putting in a good enough losing effort to save face and keep his immediate-future career options open.

Canelo should be able to end this fight pretty much whenever he chooses. The disparity in skill and experience is so great that he may even put Berlanga away without really trying to. The only “loss” Alvarez could take in this fight is if he somehow DOESN’T put Berlanga away and goes the distance with the massive underdog. Alvarez hasn’t stopped an opponent since Caleb Plant in 2021.

All things considered, though, this is not a tough fight to pick.

Berlanga will put in a game effort, but he’ll realize very early into the contest that he’s in way over his head. Expect Alvarez to test and touch in the first couple rounds and then gradually begin to step up the pace, picking Berlanga apart with increasingly vicious counters until the ref or Berlanga’s corner call an end to the beating, somewhere between rounds 6 and 8– maybe even earlier.